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Erfani S T. The prospect of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan in the shadow of nuclear deterrence. SRQPIS 2025; 2 (1) :81-102
URL: http://srqpis.knu.edu.af/article-1-59-en.html

The management of the conflict and the absence of a full-scale war between the two hostile countries of South Asia, namely India and Pakistan, after 1998 has been due to various factors. Along with various factors such as the evolution in India's foreign policy and the change in the structure of the international system from bipolar to multipolar, the role of nuclear deterrence between the two countries should be examined in particular. The question we seek to answer in this study is what the prospects for escalating tensions between India and Pakistan will be in the future? What has been tested in this study is that the balance of power created between India and Pakistan in the nuclear field, just as it has removed the conflicts between these two countries from a state of direct conflict and led them towards the absence of direct and full-scale military war, can follow the same logic in the future. The research findings show that the two countries engaged in violent wars before becoming nuclear, but after becoming nuclear in 1998, the conflicts between the two sides have been managed and limited. Nuclear weapons and the existence of a world with the capability of mutual assured destruction have caused the two countries to consider a rational behavior model in their foreign policy and not engage in full-scale war under the shadow of nuclear deterrence.